I know that I’m here in China and some would say I don’t have much or any idea of what’s been going on in Australian politics in the last three weeks. However, I know a fair bit, so I’m going to have a crack at a few predictions of results from around the states and territories of Australia. This is an early prediction, so it clearly doesn’t account for anything that happens between the publication of this post and the closing of the booths in Perth at 6pm WST (8pm EST).
I do need to note two things before you read any further:
- This is my assessment based on opinion, knowledge and gut feeling. If you’re offended or you disagree, leave a comment below, but try and avoid trolling – everyone is entitled to their opinion.
- I’ll be naming individual seats at some points in each state or territory section. Some of these seats will be stated as swinging in a different way from the state or national swing, which leads me to make an important point – SWINGS ARE NOT UNIFORM. I hope that if you are going to criticise me about this, do your reading first.
NEW SOUTH WALES
All the evidence suggests that the swing in New South Wales is on, particularly in Western Sydney. I’m picking the following seats to change:
- ALP to Liberal = Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Page, Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Kingsford-Smith and Dobell.
- ALP to National = Page
- Independent to National = Lyne, New England
This works out at a 5.2% swing towards the Coalition. Many media reports suggested that the swing could be much larger, however it is my firm belief that these reports are no longer accurate. The results above, with no other changes ANYWHERE in the country, would see a change of government.
In terms of the Senate, I believe that the NSW Senate will fall this way.
|1||Marise PAYNE||Liberal Party|
|2||Bob CARR||Australian Labor Party|
|3||John WILLIAMS||The Nationals|
|4||Doug CAMERON||Australian Labor Party|
|5||Arthur SINODINOS||Liberal Party|
|6||Cate FAEHRMANN||Australian Greens|
This means that Senator Ursula Stephens would be knocked out and her preferences would get the Greens over the line for a quota. My maths suggests that the Liberals and Nationals will get just over 3 quotas, the ALP 2.34 quotas and the Greens 0.62 quotas.
Given that former Prime Minister Julia Gillard was a Victorian, states rights dictate, for want of a better term, that the locals give Rudd a bit of a bollocking. In what is traditionally the ALP’s safest state, I’m anticipating a swing to the Coalition, but nowhere near what is expected in New South Wales.
My expectations are:
- ALP to Liberal = Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe
- Greens to ALP = Melbourne
It’s not much of a swing – about 2.5% to the Coalition
In terms of the Senate in Victoria, I’m predicting the following result
|1||Mitch FIFIELD||Liberal Party|
|2||Gavin MARSHALL||Australian Labor Party|
|3||Scott RYAN||Liberal Party|
|4||Jacinta COLLINS||Australian Labor Party|
|5||Helen KROGER||Liberal Party|
|6||Mehmet TILLEM||Australian Labor Party|
My maths suggests that the Greens support will fall away substantially to below one quote (about 0.73 quotas). Both the Liberal Party and the ALP will collect similar quotas, around 2.75 quotas each.
Kevin Rudd is a Queenslander which means that there will be a swing towards the ALP. However, this is a much tougher state to pick. Individual seat swings will be much larger and will definitely be inconsistent across the state – due to the presence of large personalities like Bob Katter and Clive Palmer.
I predict that Clive Palmer’s party will fail miserably on every single level, not collecting any seats, not making an influence in the Senate voting and Clive having a sulk.
The following predictions are more likely though:
- ALP to LNP = Moreton, Blair and Lilley
- LNP to ALP = Brisbane, Forde and Longman
- Independent to Katter’s Australia Party = Kennedy (doesn’t really move)
This suggests a swing of about 2% to the ALP, but given the weird nature of the seat changes, it’s hard to determine seat swings.
The Senate is where it gets really weird. I’ve tried it several different ways, but this seems to be the most realistic outcome.
|1||Ian MACDONALD||Liberal National Party|
|2||Chris KETTER||Australian Labor Party|
|3||James McGRATH||Liberal National Party|
|4||Claire MOORE||Australian Labor Party|
|5||Matthew CANAVAN||Liberal National Party|
|6||Daniel McCARTHY||Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party|
I don’t know anything about the Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party and it’s either them or the Greens that get up at this point. Any information would be much appreciated on them. I’m anticipating big swings to the LNP and the ALP, and a collapse in the Greens vote.
Western Australia has been Coalition heartland for quite a while now, and there seems to be no inclination for it to change. Despite some State Government hiccups, the Federal Government is still enormously on the nose with Western Australia and will swing to the Coalition. The only question is how much.
I predict the following:
- National to Liberal = O’Connor
- ALP to Liberal = Brand, Fremantle
Some would question my placing Fremantle in the change group. I have nothing against Melissa Parke but the changes in that area suggest that the local area is ripe for a change of party representation in the area. Perth will stay in ALP hands, as Alannah MacTiernan is a strong advocate for her local area.
The Senate will be a conservative heartland, with my prediction for the following results:
|1||David JOHNSTON||Liberal Party|
|2||Joe BULLOCK||Australian Labor Party|
|3||Michaelia CASH||Liberal Party|
|4||Louise PRATT||Australian Labor Party|
|5||Linda REYNOLDS||Liberal Party|
|6||David WIRRPANDA||The Nationals|
David Wirrpanda will, I expect, be a strong representative for both the WA Nationals AND indigenous rights in Western Australia. This comes at the loss of Scott Ludlam, which upsets a lot of female politics fans across the country.
South Australia is an unusual state (in so many ways), but for this election, I am anticipating a boring swing to the Coalition that achieves nothing of note in the House of Representatives. The seats of Boothby and Sturt will remain in Liberal hands, and I have my doubts that the Liberal Party will pick up any ALP seats. I do, however, anticipate some enormous swings towards the Liberal Party in South Australia in the order of 5%+, but not enough to warrant a change of signage at any electorate offices.
In the Senate is where it will get interesting. I’m predicting a collapse in the Green vote in South Australia, which results in the following:
|1||Cory BERNARDI||Liberal Party|
|2||Penny WONG||Australian Labor Party|
|3||Simon BIRMINGHAM||Liberal Party|
|4||Don FARRELL||Australian Labor Party|
|5||Cathie WEBB||Liberal Party|
|6||Nick XENOPHON||Nick Xenophon Group|
The collapse in the Green vote is going to become a big issue for the party, which I discussed a few weeks ago.
Tasmania’s five seats will not attract much attention with the exception of the seat of Denision. I don’t anticipate any seat changes in Tasmania, but there will probably be a swing to the Coalition of between 3 and 4 percentage points due to the dissatisfaction with the Labor government.
The collapse of the Green vote will be most keenly felt in the Green heartland of Tasmania, which will provide for the following result:
|1||Carol BROWN||Australian Labor Party|
|2||Richard COLBECK||Liberal Party|
|3||Catryna BILYK||Australian Labor Party|
|4||David BUSHBY||Liberal Party|
|5||Lin THORP||Australian Labor Party|
|6||Sally CHANDLER||Liberal Party|
No Greens Senator from Tasmania this time? Heads will roll around the campfire after the smoke has drifted away
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY
No one will really care about what happens in the Australian Capital Territory, because the two seats there are very safe Labor seats and are unlikely to change anytime soon.
More interest will be taken in the Senate seats, given what was expected to be a strong Greens challenge this time around. However, the collapse of the Greens vote will result in the following:
|1||Kate LUNDY||Australian Labor Party|
|2||Zed SESELJA||Liberal Party|
Both candidates will easily poll a whole quota in their own right, pissing off the Greens even more.
I anticipate a swing to the ALP here, but nothing that will bother the AEC. Local issues here are incredibly important, and rarely get coverage in the national media, so I’m not anticipating any seat changes in the Northern Territory.
The Northern Territory Senator Representatives will remain the same, so Senator Scullion will be able to continue bringing his mangoes down to Canberra for the annual Coalition Christmas party and their famous mango daiquiris.
|1||Nigel SCULLION||Country Liberal Party|
|2||Nova PERIS||Australian Labor Party|
On this basis, I’m anticipating the following changes in the House of Representatives:
- Liberal gains = Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Page, Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Kingsford-Smith, Dobell, Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe, Moreton, Blair, Lilley, Brand and Fremantle (18 seats)
- National gains = Page, Lyne, New England (3 seats)
- ALP gains = Melbourne, Brisbane, Forde and Longman (4 seats)
- KAP gains = Kennedy (1 seat)
This leaves the House of Representatives in the hands of an Abbott-led Government. The Coalition would have 93 seats, the ALP would have 55 and there would be 2 “others” – the independent Andrew Wilkie and Bob Katter representing Katter’s Australia Party. This calculates to a national swing of approximately 4.3% to the Coalition (please see my note earlier about swings).
In the Senate, we would have the following representation
- Liberals = 16 elected + 11 returning = 27
- Liberal Nationals = 3 elected + 3 returning = 6
- Nationals = 2 elected + 2 returning = 4
- Australian Labor Party = 16 elected + 13 returning = 29
- Greens = 1 elected + 6 returning = 7
- Nick Xenophon = 1
- Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party = 1
So the conservative parties hold 37 seats, the left wing parties hold 36 seats (on my predictions, leaving Nick Xenophon and the representative from the Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party holding the balance of power in the Senate – a scary thought indeed.
So what do you think about my predictions? Leave a comment below and/or vote in the polls.