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It’s been a while since the Federal Election has been over.

However, there are still elements that are not yet complete. Clive Palmer has (sadly) been elected and is still shouting his mouth off about anything and everything. The Australian Electoral Commission somehow lost 1375 Senate votes which resulted in a change of the result, which will surely wind up in the Court of Disputed Returns – this could see an unprecedented Senate only election in which every man and his dog could run.

But, let’s go back to the nuts and bolts of the election. Tony Abbott and the Coalition won the election, as predicted. So let’s look at what I said way back at the beginning of September.

New South Wales

I predicted the following:

  • ALP to Liberal = Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Page, Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Kingsford-Smith and Dobell.
  • ALP to National = Page
  • Independent to National = Lyne, New England

It turns out the following took place:

  • ALP to Liberal = Lindsay, Reid, Banks, Robertson, Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Barton
  • ALP to National = Page
  • Independent to National = Lyne and New England

I’m pretty happy with my estimates about New South Wales. Greenway didn’t fall because the Liberal candidate screwed up early and the Labor candidate worked her arse off. A similar story about a hard working candidate applies in Parramatta. Kingsford-Smith was always going to be a tough call, but not an enormous surprise to see it stay in Labor hands.

Obviously, the biggest surprise of the night was seeing Barton go. Apparently the Liberal candidate was on the ground for 18 months, door knocked every single house in the electorate and treated his campaign as a full time job. This is not to besmirch the previous member but I think even they would appreciate that giving up wages for 18 months is a hell of a job in what would previously be considered a safe seat.

My Senate picks were

1 Marise PAYNE Liberal Party
2 Bob CARR Australian Labor Party
3 John WILLIAMS The Nationals
4 Doug CAMERON Australian Labor Party
5 Arthur SINODINOS Liberal Party
6 Cate FAEHRMANN Australian Greens

They turned out like this

Candidate Party
1 Marise PAYNE Liberal Party
2 Bob CARR Australian Labor Party
3 John WILLIAMS The Nationals
4 Doug CAMERON Australian Labor Party
5 David LEYONHJELM Liberal Democratic Party
6 Arthur SINODINOS Liberal Party

The Liberal Democratic Party candidate getting up was a surprise to everyone, including the Liberal Democratic Party – it’s generally felt that they got up because:

  1. They had Column A on the ballot paper; and
  2. People got them mixed up with the Liberal Party

I’m inclinced to go with number 2 over number 1 – there’s no way the Liberal Democratic Party would have collected 9.51% of the vote otherwise.

Otherwise, I was pretty close on the result.

Victoria

My expectations for Victoria were:

  • ALP to Liberal = Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe
  • Greens to ALP = Melbourne

The outcome was:

  • ALP to Liberal = Corangamite and La Trobe
  • Liberal to Independent = Indi

Two interesting things on the night out of Victoria – firstly Adam Bandt desperately spinning to say that the Greens are doing well when everywhere else in the country there were getting smashed and secondly, the bizarre situation that saw Sophie Mirabella on the verge of losing her seat. That was one that no-one in the national media saw coming and was a big surprise to everyone. There has been a lot of commentary about who was supporting whom and so on – but I’m not the person to discuss that.

My Senate picks were

  Candidate Party
1 Mitch FIFIELD Liberal Party
2 Gavin MARSHALL Australian Labor Party
3 Scott RYAN Liberal Party
4 Jacinta COLLINS Australian Labor Party
5 Helen KROGER Liberal Party
6 Mehmet TILLEM Australian Labor Party

The outcome was

Candidate Party
1 Mitch FIFIELD Liberal Party
2 Gavin MARSHALL Australian Labor Party
3 Scott RYAN Liberal Party
4 Jacinta COLLINS Australian Labor Party
5 Janet RICE Australian Greens
6 Ricky MUIR Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party

Obviously the fall in the Green vote in Victoria wasn’t as big as I had anticipated, as they got up on preferences, but the preference harvesting problem that Antony Green has spent time talking about here rears its ugly head to get Ricky Muir over the line. There is a lot to be said for Senate electoral reform, and Antony Green has a lot of sensible ideas about it in this article.

Obviously, Helen Kroger doesn’t get a second term in the Senate – she was a strong advocate so that will be a shame. Ricky Muir has done a deal with the Palmer United Party to create a larger voting bloc which has caused much controversy and will continue to dog the fledgling party for quite some time.

Queensland

Well, I think it’s fair to say that I got Queensland very wrong – but having said that, what the f*** is wrong with Queenslanders???

I predicted the following:

I predict that Clive Palmer’s party will fail miserably on every single level, not collecting any seats, not making an influence in the Senate voting and Clive having a sulk.

The following predictions are more likely though:

  • ALP to LNP = Moreton, Blair and Lilley
  • LNP to ALP = Brisbane, Forde and Longman
  • Independent to Katter’s Australia Party = Kennedy (doesn’t really move)

This is what actually happened:

  • ALP to LNP = Petrie, Capricornia
  • LNP to Palmer United Party = Fairfax
  • Independent to Katter’s Australia Party = Kennedy

I got one right in Queensland – not so good.

This is what I said about the Senate in Queensland

  Candidate Party
1 Ian MACDONALD Liberal National Party
2 Chris KETTER Australian Labor Party
3 James McGRATH Liberal National Party
4 Claire MOORE Australian Labor Party
5 Matthew CANAVAN Liberal National Party
6 Daniel McCARTHY Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party

This is what actually happened

Candidate Party
1 Ian MACDONALD Liberal National Party
2 Chris KETTER Australian Labor Party
3 James McGRATH Liberal National Party
4 Glenn Patrick LAZARUS Palmer United Party
5 Claire MOORE Australian Labor Party
6 Matthew CANAVAN Liberal National Party

Palmer United Party with nearly 10% of the vote? Like I said before, WTF is wrong with Queenslanders? To be fair, I got 5 out of 6 people right, but really? No wonder I rarely went to Queensland for a holiday.

Western Australia

I predicted the following for election night:

  • National to Liberal = O’Connor
  • ALP to Liberal = Brand, Fremantle

This is what happened

  • National to Liberal = O’Connor

A decent swing to the Liberals in Fremantle but that was the highlight of the campaign really.

The Senate is an ongoing battle in WA, as Antony Green points out in this blog post. This is what I predicted:

Candidate Party
1 David JOHNSTON Liberal Party
2 Joe BULLOCK Australian Labor Party
3 Michaelia CASH Liberal Party
4 Louise PRATT Australian Labor Party
5 Linda REYNOLDS Liberal Party
6 David WIRRPANDA The Nationals

This is the ORIGINAL OUTCOME OF THE SENATE COUNT:

Candidate Party
1 David JOHNSTON Liberal Party
2 Joe BULLOCK Australian Labor Party
3 Michaelia CASH Liberal Party
4 Linda REYNOLDS Liberal Party
5 Zhenya WANG Palmer United Party
6 Louise PRATT Australian Labor Party

Another Palmer United Party candidate – who happened to work for one of his companies? Louise Pratt gets up, which is good because I know that she works hard for her constituents.

South Australia

As predicted, no seat changes there, but the Senate got weird there.

I predicted:

Candidate Party
1 Cory BERNARDI Liberal Party
2 Penny WONG Australian Labor Party
3 Simon BIRMINGHAM Liberal Party
4 Don FARRELL Australian Labor Party
5 Cathie WEBB Liberal Party
6 Nick XENOPHON Nick Xenophon Group

Well, I got that wrong in a big way – this is what happened:

Candidate Party
1 Cory BERNARDI Liberal Party
2 Nick XENOPHON Nick Xenophon Group
3 Penny WONG Australian Labor Party
4 Sarah HANSON-YOUNG Australian Greens
5 Bob DAY Family First Party
6 Simon BIRMINGHAM Liberal Party

Family First getting up before the 2nd Liberal Party candidate? Nick Xenophon getting up before the ALP? What’s in the water in… well, a better question would be what isn’t in the water in South Australia?

Tasmania

It was clear early on that Tasmania was the state of excitement on the night of September 7 because 3 of the 5 seats changed hands – despite my predictions suggesting no seats would change hands.

On the night we saw:

  • ALP to Liberal = Bass, Braddon, Lyons

Those swings were 10.8%, 10% and 13.5% to the Liberal Party in Tasmania – clearly a LOT of dissatisfaction with the then Federal Government there. Certainly there was some talk on the night about a swing in Tasmania but I had dismissed it – much to my error.

The Senate got interesting as well. I had originally predicted:

Candidate Party
1 Carol BROWN Australian Labor Party
2 Richard COLBECK Liberal Party
3 Catryna BILYK Australian Labor Party
4 David BUSHBY Liberal Party
5 Lin THORP Australian Labor Party
6 Sally CHANDLER Liberal Party

However, this is what happened:

Candidate Party
1 Richard COLBECK Liberal Party
2 Carol BROWN Australian Labor Party
3 David BUSHBY Liberal Party
4 Catryna BILYK Australian Labor Party
5 Peter WHISH-WILSON Australian Greens
6 Jacqui LAMBIE Palmer United Party

The Greens manage to hold onto their sole representative from the Apple Isle and surprisingly, Palmer United Party get ANOTHER representative into the Senate *headdesk*

Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory

I’m getting sick of all this writing so I’m going to combine these two. Nothing changed here – no seats changed hands, and the senate stayed spilt in both territories.

In conclusion

In conclusion, I got pretty close in most states with the individual seats and I showed that the Senate can be a crap shoot when it comes to preference harvesting. I’ve also shown that Queenslanders are bat shit crazy and South Australians are weird.

I’m looking forward to your comments below.

Thanks

Chris

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